Why has Italy’s growth slowed so dramatically?
Why have wages stagnated and young people emigrate?
This book tackles one of the most pressing issues of our time: Italy’s long-term economic decline.
Drawing on data, evidence, and rigorous analysis, the authors cut through myths and misconceptions to uncover the true drivers of stagnation: a shrinking and aging population, decades of weak productivity, institutional inefficiencies, and deep regional divides. The result is a country that has steadily fallen behind other advanced economies.
Clear and compelling, Portrait of a Decline is not just an analysis—it is a call to understand the fundamental forces shaping growth and prosperity. Because without a clear diagnosis, there can be no solution.
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The authors show, with numbers that are hard to dispute, that Italy is among the countries that have grown the least over the past twenty years, despite nearly €500 billion in public stimulus. The book offers no alibis: it rigorously demonstrates that the problem is not a lack of resources, but the ability to turn them into growth. The problem is not cyclical, but structural—systemic.
A rigorous and very well-constructed book that addresses complex issues of the Italian economic situation with clarity, balance, and strong analytical soundness. An important read for anyone seeking a serious, well-documented, and well-argued analysis of the country.
A must-read for anyone who truly wants to understand why things in Italy never seem to improve—starting from the data rather than from the increasingly implausible narratives that have become all too common.
An excellent discussion of the country’s problems: accessible, non-ideological, and grounded in data.
Italy’s socio-economic decline has deep roots, with causes that also lie in the country’s institutional structure and cultural attitudes. This book confronts that reality head-on, without sugarcoating it for the reader, and offers a clear and incisive analysis of the data. This analysis represents the first necessary step toward understanding the reforms needed for the country to return to growth. Enjoy the read.
Guido Ascari
Guido Ascari is Professor of Economics at the University of Pavia and Economic Advisor and Head of Monetary Policy Research at the Dutch Central Bank. He was Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford from 2014 to 2021. He is a research fellow at CEPR and RCEA. He holds a PhD from the University of Warwick and a Research Doctorate from the University of Pavia.
Riccardo Trezzi
Riccardo Trezzi is Adjunct Professor of Economics at the University of Pavia. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Cambridge (UK). He worked at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC and at the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. He runs a consultancy business (UnderlyingInflation.com) focused on macroeconomic modeling
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